Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Iran can be President Obama's first and main international success in his first 100 days for America and the world to witness.

...Can Obama succeed? Will others permit him to succeed ?

...And That TV interview on alarabiya TV... How was President Obama’s viewed by Arabs and Muslims around the world?
By Khaled Fattal


The celebrations are over, the jubilation have sunk in, Dr Martin Luther king’s dream has been reached- a black man is at the mountain top. Now comes the inescapable reality. Can Obama succeed? Will Obama succeed? Is Obama sincere or was he another politician that made it? And if he is sincere will the Washington Bureaucracy and its puppeteers permit him to have his way or will they derail his plans just to remind him as to who is really in charge of the United States of America.

What challenges should President Obama tackle first and early to give him great early international success that America and the world can cheer? What success can help him in Washington against known and hidden warmongers, and those who wish to obstruct?

And was Obama’s interview on alarabiya TV real or was it Memorex? Why must Iran and the diffusing of the Iranian crisis with the US be his first task?

Everyone including President Obama recognize that fixing the economy will take years. He also knows that factoring responsibility in American society may take longer. I have been arguing for social and corporate economic responsibility for 27 years and I will talk about these at later dates). So what can be tackled now that can bear fruit in the next 100 days?

Many questions are being asked by Americans and people all over the world whether Obama will succeed or not, hoping he does. The alarabiya TV interview of Obama a few hours ago is part of the charm offensive by the Obama administration towards the Arab and Muslim world. But Arabs and Muslims are used to lovely words. What they have lacked and really want to see are actions, deeds and successes that touch their lives positively and now.

It is not enough for Obama to label terrorist groups who kill innocent civilians as evil. We all know they are. But he also needs to add that “government who kill innocent civilians can have no excuse and are also terrorist governments” and should be treated accordingly until they change their ways.

Obama's interview on alarabiya TV.

To Arabs and Muslims all over the world the difference between seeing President Bush or President Obama being interviewed on TV is minimal. They already loathed and hated bush for his deeds, actions, and double standards. They do like the words of Obama - but know for now they are only words. Words that sound sincere but nonetheless, just words.

Moreover, many who believe in the conspiracy theories think Obama is just another puppet with nice words the puppeteers put him there when their last agent, agent Bush failed miserably in succeeding in invading Iraq after Afghanistan, so that they continue to Libya, Syria etc... To change the map of the Arab world and the Middle East once again since Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 followed by the Balfour Declaration in November 1917 that changed the map of the middle east 100 years ago and laid the foundation for conflict for the next 100 years. (Anyone remembers the Bush and his Neo-conservatives' warmongering talk in 2002, 2003 and 2004 in America, Britain and Israel that aimed to change that same map once again?)

Today President Obama has a unique opportunity no other U.S. President had before him in modern times. He has a chance to be loved and respected by Arabs and Muslims the world over if he delivers on his promises with deeds and action they can see and feel changing their lives now.

To do this President Obama needs to succeed on all these issues:
* The Palestinian (humanitarian angle) issue,
* The Iraq issue
* The Iran Issue

The Palestinian and Iraqi issues will not be solved in the first 100 days. But the right foundation for their success is conditional on the correct ingredients being present in the first 100 days. (I will talk about this at a later time).

So what is fixable now and in the first 100 days? Answer: Iran.

IRAN is Obama’s great opportunity for early success. And just like other challenges, it appears unsolvable to many. But in my opinion it is very solvable and would take no more than weeks or months to resolve and within his first 100 days if tackled early, correctly, delicately and even handily and best under the radar screen until the agreements are ready to be announced so that those who wish to obstruct don’t get a chance to sabotage them.

Based on the platform of change that helped elect him on the supposed "change has come to America", if President Obama follows this advice he will get the world to cheer his early successes to such a level it will deafen those who wish to obstruct real peace and harmony between religions and the warmongers in Washington and other capitals around the world perhaps for generations to come.

Why Iran first?

When Senator Obama promised to pull the troops out of Iraq as an election promise, and then when became the Democratic nominee for President many of my friends and colleagues would recall my saying that Iran would be the first task I would tackle first because if Obama is sincere it is so easy to achieve, Plus, It can show great tangible success very quickly perhaps in the first 100 days to fix the Iranian crisis for the world to see.

What is in for the U.S.A?

President Obama wants US troupes out of Iraq in 18 months. Iran has great influence within the Shiite community in Iraq and with many of its political leaderships. Therefore:

  • #1- No honorable withdrawal by America troops from Iraq is possible without cooperation from Iran. This requires Iran’s cooperation. Furthermore,
  • #2- The US wants to insure the longevity of its US backed Iraqi regime not to tumble after the last US soldier leaves Iraq - unlike Vietnam. That also requires Iran’s cooperation.
  • #3 –The US needs to ensure its interests are maintained in Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. After the departure of the US troops from Iraq - Iran can be detrimental on this objective.
  • #4- A friendly Iran can exert pressure on Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon to appease Israel and its supporters politically so that Israel can accept making much needed concession towards peace with the Palestinians. (The Israeli Gaza offensive left hundreds of innocent Palestinian women and children civilians dead, some were killed while taking refuge at UN schools and compounds, all to the dismay of the international community and Obama's silence).
  • #5- Many other reasons exist why the US would benefit from this with the same conclusions.

Therefore, fixing the Iranian crisis is very possible , and doing it the first 100 day of Obama's administration is very achievable. All would serve the American strategic and tactical interests. The great advantage is that the Obama administration can label some of the problems it can't fix yet on the Bush administration that created them in the first place.

What's in it for Iran?

In return, Iran would be assured of its legitimate right and pursuit to develop nuclear power. Iran has officially and on many occasions declared it has no intentions of developing nuclear weapons but insisted on its nation's legitimate right to have nuclear power. The Obama administration can now call them on this commitment. then the US can acknowledge Iran’s right for Nuclear Power publicly. This would lay the foundation for Iran to climb down and re-allow UN nuclear inspectors to come back in and monitor that all developments are for peaceful means and objectives. All achievable in the next 100 days.

Iran won't need nuclear weapons when the US leaves Iraq in 18 months.

Satisfying US objectives and becoming part of the solution, and with the US troops out of Iraq in 18 months Iran will no longer have need for the deterrent of a nuclear weapon when the US troops leave Iraq. Iran will no longer be under threat of attack or invasion by US forces stationed in either Iraq and/or Afghanistan and this will give Iran the greater sense of safety thus also no longer needing the deterrent of a nuclear weapon should that have been their undeclared intention in the past.

Also, by Iran assisting the US to pull its troops out in 18 months from Iraq and to satisfy U.S. interests as I detailed above Iran becomes part of the solution instead of the problem. Furthermore, it will solidify Iran as the regional power in the Middle East. If so, such a plan can lead perhaps to normalization between Iran and the U.S. relations making it not just possible but perhaps imminent. If and when that happens, it will then elevate Iran’s role to a new geopolitical power of the Middle East and the region at the pleasure of Washington.

The American Iranian dance and choreography have already started

Already symbolic activities are appearing on the world stage indicating this to be the case. The New York times reports today : “Clinton Sees an Opportunity for Iran to Return to Diplomacy” it writes “Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Tuesday that Iran had a “clear opportunity” to engage with the international community, amplifying the conciliatory tone struck a day earlier by President Obama toward Iran and the rest of the Muslim world.

In Iran, the Tehran Times reporting today positively about President Obama and his leadership on climate change They report "U.S. President Barack Obama vowed to lead the world on climate change as he set about shredding Bush administration policies with new domestic measures to force the development of fuel-efficient cars".

I am sure Iranian papers may be drafting articles as we speak about President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seeing opportunity for US to return to diplomacy” after Obama’s conciliatory tone TV interview on alarabiya TV hours ago.




The new US change of tone.

The US Bush administration frequently used analogies of the carrot and stick. These analogies must be thrown in the toilet. They are as offensive to Iran, Arabs and Muslims as the toilet itself or where Bush's legacy many feel belongs. Instead, the talk should be of mutual interests and of respect. And it appears Obama in his alarabiya interview has buried and replaced these Bush analogies with words like “Mutual respect”.

Final reflection at what is possible.

Can the Iran crisis be turned into an Obama success story? Answer: most definitely.

Can it in the first 100 days? I believe so.

If it does, whether in 100 days, longer, or ever is up to Obama's sincerity, his focus, and the priorities he lays for his team and their ability to execute them.

History will judge him based on what is possible.

If after 4 years in office the economy is still in ruin, Obama may be forgiven knowing he cannot control or influence that challenge singularly, he needs support from both houses as well. However, if US-Iranian relations are still in crisis there can be no forgiveness as all the ingredients are ready for him.

The next 30 days will show indicators if he will succeed or not or whether those who wish to obstruct and the war mongers are able in derailing him and his plans. Time and real results will answer the question: is President Obama real or is he Memorex?